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UK Climate Impacts Prog.

Challenges & Opportunities of Climate Change.

HGCA Environment.

How Green is Your Business.

Soil Information Gateway.

Climate Change & Your Environment

Pest & Pathogen Activity

Climate Change & the Rural Economy

Climate Change Resource for Education

UK Met. Office Climate Change Research

Rising sea levels threat coastal cropping

Climate Change: How will it impact on your farm business?

Climate Change is happening and will affect your farm business in the medium to long term by some degree unless you start thinking how to mitigate the effects soon.

The following detail will help your thought processes and provide links to key information sources where further information can be gathered.

Climate Change is unlikely to be catastrophic for UK agriculture as a whole. Extreme regional anomalies are nevertheless likely to occur - flooding (fresh and salt water), soil erosion, drought, crop stress, pest and disease attacks, etc.

Facts to consider:

Of global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in 2005, agriculture accounted for about 60% of nitrous dioxide and about 40% of carbon monoxide. (Some agreement to indicate that carbon dioxide emissions between atmosphere and agricultural land are generally in balance). Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Average UK annual temperature has risen between 0.4 and 0.9°C since 1914.
Thermal growing season for plants has increased by up to 30 days since 1900.
Absolute sea level around the UK has risen by approx. 10 cms during 20th Century.
Total summer precipitation in southern and central counties has decreased between 1% and 40% since 1961.
In the same time total winter precipitation has increased and become heavier by up to 50%

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme. (UKCIP).

The UK Climate Impacts Programme provides scenarios that show how our climate might change and co-ordinates research on dealing with our future climate. The following projections have been made regarding UK farming:

Temperature: By 2080, annual average temperature is projected to rise by 2°C (low emissions scenario) to about 3.5°C (high emissions scenario). [UKCIP02]
Precipitation: By 2080, winter precipitation is projected to rise depending upon the region, from between 10 and 20% (low emissions scenario) to between 15 and 35% (high emissions scenario). Summer precipitation: the whole of the UK is projected to become drier, with a decrease in rainfall relative to emission scenarios, of between 35 and 50%. The largest changes are predicted for eastern and southern counties.
Extreme Seasons: The frequency of extreme seasons and extreme years are also likely to increase. E.g. such an anomaly as a hot '1995-type' August, where temperatures rose by 3.4°C, could occur 20% of the time by the 2050's, but 60% of the time by the 2080's.
Heat Stress: Frequency of events likely to increase, leading to drought with indirect impact on livestock productivity and crop yields / quality.
Pests & Diseases: over wintering of pests more frequent, impact on crop yield and quality. Some pests / diseases will be victims of changing conditions while new pests / diseases will arrive. E.g. Blue tongue. Food Security Issues.
Water Resource: Erratic precipitation will generate local shortages, but also flooding. Rising sea levels will impact on salinity of boreholes and irrigation.

How to Mitigate Climate Change Impact :

Integrated models of whole farming systems addressing cultivation techniques, fertiliser regimes, livestock management and related CH4 emissions
Adopt practices to either reduce, or remove G.H.G. emissions from the atmosphere:
1. decrease the use of inputs derived from fossil fuels. e.g. N fertiliser
2. grow bioenergy crops, or adopt anaerobic digestion systems
3. capture atmospheric carbon and retain in soil, plants or building materials.
4. adopt rotational cropping that maintains soil nutrient levels.
5. minimise N2O emissions:
  - match nitrogen supply with crop demand, e.g. GAI management oilseed rape, split-dosing cereals.
  - tighten N cycles: re-use manures, compost, plant residues. Chop crop trash and incorporate.
  - consider control release fertilisers, nitrification inhibitors.
  - optimize tillage, irrigation and drainage.

Adapting to Climate Change:

The farming community continually adapts to change. Weather, legislation and global markets have driven diversification and exploitation. Climate change will be no different, where some fall victim, others will profit. Given sufficient information it is hoped the majority will adapt their business to succeed through:

reducing exposure to risk - relocate farm enterprise if necessary
budgeting to accept a degree of loss - in yield, quality land resource and buildings
contingency planning
sharing responsibility for risk - insurance or collaberation with others to minimise effects of anomalies
exploiting opportunities associated with changing climate and anomalies.

While farmers need to adapt, so do local government, supply trades, agronomy and acadaemia to enhance the adaptive capacity of the agricultural community.

contingency planning for water shortages, or flooding.
field management to minimise soil erosion, rutting or compaction.
plant breeding of new varieties able to withstand new disease outbreaks, more intense disease levels, extremes and anomalies, or improve efficiency in nitrogen usage, for example.
development of new active ingrediants to maintain or improve efficacy among changing weed, pathogen and pest profile.
fertiliser formulations and cultivation techniques to minimise denitrofication and G.H.G. emissions.
new machinary capable of travelling on wetter soils.
improved local weather forcasting to safeguard water resources.
adoption and development of new crops better suited to changing conditions.